Will lowering the voting age to 16 help Labour keep power?

In a slightly surprising move on one of the last few days before parliament’s long summer recess, the government has announced it wants to give 16- and 17-year-olds the vote.

This change was in the Labour manifesto, and Keir Starmer had expressed renewed support for it in April, telling a select committee: “I think that if you’re old enough to go out to work, if you’re old enough to pay your taxes, then you are entitled to have a say on how your taxes are spent. And also, we do have voting at a younger age in different parts of the United Kingdom and the sky didn’t fall in.”

However, the policy wasn’t in the King’s Speech, which led some to doubt it would ever arrive. Looks like their time has arrived...

Yes, and that’s what’s coming. Rushanara Ali, the minister responsible, has confirmed that votes for 16 and 17-year-olds for all UK elections would form part of a new Elections Bill. Actually, at least as important electorally will be other measures in the bill designed to increase turnout at elections – expanding forms of voter ID to include UK-issued bank cards and automatic voter registration. Modernising the rules on political donations to protect against foreign interference should also make the system fairer. However, there’s no word on another idea Starmer once floated, which was to give EU nationals resident in the UK the right to vote in general elections (ie aside from Ireland, Malta and Cyprus, who already enjoy the privilege for historical reasons).

Ali describes it as “seismic” – it is the biggest change to the UK-wide franchise since 1969 when the voting age was lowered from 21 to 18 (though Scotland and Wales have already gone to 16). However, the number of new voters involved is relatively small – some 1.5 million who qualify under citizenship rules, out of a total electorate of around 48 million. They’re also less likely to turn up to vote compared to, say, those over 60; the grey vote will still outweigh the youth vote.

Not really, and not just because not that many teenagers will bother to vote. This time last year, when Labour was overwhelmingly popular, the new voters might have made a difference in a few seats, but now perhaps less so, just because Labour support has sunk relative to other parties. However, the dynamics are unclear. The best guess is that Labour would still net a small advantage over the Conservatives, who are virtually invisible in this age group, but certainly not so much over the Greens, independents/Corbynites, and, to some extent, Reform UK. Nigel Farage’s party has some support among younger males, but much less so with young women (and the female vote more generally). No doubt Reform will take some inspiration from having an 18-year-old Reform councillor leading Warwickshire, and a 19-year-old in charge of children’s social services in Leicestershire.

Yes, but it’s not that popular. As well as Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the SNP, the Greens and Plaid Cymru all backed it at the last election. But according to pollsters More in Common, last year the public clearly opposed the idea, by a 47 to 28 per cent margin. According to an ITN/Merlin poll, about half of 16 to 18-year-olds don’t want the vote.

Same as the rest of the voters who want things like a functioning NHS. However, they may have some special interests of their own: restoration of the educational maintenance grant (for sixth formers and equivalent) in England would seem an obvious vote-winner here, and improved opportunities for degree places and apprenticeships, lower tuition fees, and improved living allowances. At the moment, younger voters also seem more concerned about climate change (where they have more to lose) than older cohorts.

It’s quite likely they’d be more pro-EU than the older generations; demographics are already eroding the Leave base. In Scotland, the youngest voters tend to favour independence too, but they already had the vote in the 2014 referendum, which narrowly rejected separation.

Besides Scotland and Wales, the franchise has been set at 16 in nations ranging from Brazil and Austria to the Isle of Man and, as the prime minister noted, the sky didn’t fall in.